Who Will Win The Overwatch League Grand Finals?
The Overwatch League Grand Finals are upon us. Weeks of the best-of-the-best fighting it out has led us to this moment, it all comes down to four teams, and if they can pull off the greatest win of the year.
The Shanghai Dragons, Philadelphia Fusion, The San Francisco Shock, and the Seoul Dynasty will take the stage on Thursday, October 8, and cement their places in Overwatch esports history.
But who could win it all, and why? And who will be the MVP of the Finals? The GGRecon team of Overwatch analysts have come together to predict just that.
Click to enlargeSebastian Romero - Shanghai Dragons
In a world full of mysticism and grandeur, the Overwatch League won’t be seeing a repeat champion in 2020. In fact, with glaring bias towards Dota 2 and The International, it should be a long time before a player and city finds the opportunity to take the crown twice. A championship win of the Overwatch League should be the hardest thing any player or team has to attempt in their career, and a repeat win should be even more challenging. This year, three of the four teams hold at least one former champion, and the San Francisco Shock are even present with a majority of the same roster to defend their throne, looking for the back-to-back reclamation. The deck may be seemingly stacked against this pipe dream, but there’s a trump card. That card being the Shanghai Dragons, who currently seem more than capable of making this dream a reality.
Barring any impending curse where the MVP of an even number year doesn’t win the season, Shanghai have everything going for them. In fact, some might even argue that this is their final to lose. The ball, the puck, the frisbee, everything is on Shanghai’s side of the court. Five Role Stars, the most of any team in 2020, the 2020 MVP in Byung-sun "Fleta" Kim, and that magical story of once being the most losingest team in all of professional sports history, suddenly achieving the ultimate redemption of becoming the world champions of their game.
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Shanghai have the talent, the synergy, and the absolute potential to become this season’s champion. While their capabilities against the North American teams are still to be tried and tested, if their adaptation and mental fortitude showcased throughout their time in APAC is anything to go by, the Dragons are looking mighty fine to deny three teams worth of champions their shot at returning to the summit of the Overwatch League. If there’s a single defining trait to Shanghai’s prospects, it's their ability to rebound, to stay in the series and pull out the win when it matters.
There’s a reason they have only lost three matches this entire season of the Overwatch League, with two tournament wins and a reverse sweep in the finals of one of those to boot. They are the best team in the world right now, they are the favourites to take it, and they will be the 2020 Overwatch League champions.
Click to enlargeMatt Gerrity - Shanghai Dragons
Predictions for a Grand Finals like this is like gambling on a coin flip. The reality is all four of these teams are composed of solid players, but when it comes down to it, the Dragons seem to have the extra edge in their pure playmaking ability. While many teams rely on individual skill from a key member, or their ability to function as a team, the Dragons have formed the perfect conjunction of these two characteristics.
They are also a very meta-averse team. Without needing to make many substitutions, they should be able to handedly match their opponents throughout this bracket. While these matches won’t be easy for the Dragons, I believe more in the consistent playmaking from Shanghai on a wider variety of heroes and roles. The Dragons have players in all three roles that could turn a fight around, and I have faith that they will execute this to their advantage. It will be extremely difficult for any of their opponents to shut them down if the Dragons have players performing on an elite level all across the map.
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Over a long series, this combination of skill, both in their individual mechanics and tactical cohesion, as well their ability to adapt to the various compositions they might encounter should push them over the top. My advantage to the Dragons is only slight, as specifically the Shock and Fusion have looked like they are stepping up over their past few matches. But, with a team that made all three of their regional tournaments and only lost twice in the regular season, I have faith that a month of preparation will smooth out any wrinkles that this star-studded roster might have.
When it comes down to the nitty-gritty, it is hard to say that any player on this Dragon’s roster would be completely outclassed by their counterpart on their opponent’s side of the match. Even if their opponent tries to focus on shutting down a specific aspect of Shanghai’s play, the rest of the squad has the capability to prevent the shutdown or utilise the lack of pressure on themselves to turn around the fight.
My prediction for Grand Finals MVP goes to Jae Won “LIP” Lee. Although ByungSun “Fleta” Kim won MVP, I think the heroes LIP has recently showcased in the Winner’s Final of the playoffs against the Seoul Dynasty will provide him with the opportunity to assert himself throughout this bracket. In that one match, he helped his team secure the number one seed on high impact heroes like Ashe, McCree, Widowmaker, and Sombra. If he plays to the level we expect of him, it will be hard for anyone to stop the Dragons.
Click to enlargeJoseph 'Volamel' Franco - San Francisco Shock
The San Francisco Shock will become the first team to both defend and win repeat Overwatch League titles. With four weeks of preparation, a metagame that has been stable, the best coaching staff in the league, and some of the best players in the world, how are Shock not the odds on favourites? They are a team that refines better than any team ever assembled. They disassemble the metagame they’re given and reconstruct it in their own likeness. When the 2019 Vancouver Titans attempted to ignore other viable styles, the Shock triumphed with their flexibility. Even when thrown a curveball like the Washington Justice, they adapt. When the Philadelphia Fusion challenged on equal footing, they overcame. The only team that stands as a rival are the Shanghai Dragons, who did not win their division as convincingly as we all expected.
The Dragons had their own bout with their own Justice, and while they did win, this doesn’t compare to Shock’s round one fight with Washington. The Dragons had two whole series, one against the Hangzhou Spark and the other against the Guangzhou Charge to learn from, to pull information from--and they still looked shaky. The Shock took a top-three team and beat them convincingly. Stage finals, Overwatch League titles, monthly tournament titles, they all clutter the Shock’s trophy case. Think of all the rules that have changed, the metagame that has passed them by, and somehow the Shock remain. Role lock, Hero Pools, GOATS, none of it matters. The game itself tried to unseat the champions, and it failed, no team is going to be able to top them. This is the Shock Era, and the 2020 title will be a nice addition to their legacy.
However, that won’t be the only achievement cemented that evening. As the fixture of the Shock’s tank line, one of the only members that will not be ripped away from the starting lineup, Choi "ChoiHyoBin” Hyo-bin will become the first two-time Overwatch League grand finals MVP. As Sigma, D.Va and even Zarya could find their way into the Shock’s grand final playbook, this plays right into ChoiHyoBin’s wheelhouse. Just like last season, ChoiHyoBin will be the unmovable force that he was in the Shock’s 2019 title win. The DPS will rotate based on the map, so will the supports, but he will remain throughout the grand finals as the one stable and consistent fixture.
Click to enlargeSascha 'Yiska' Heinisch - Shanghai Dragons
Who would win in a fight, a silverback gorilla or a great white shark? You’re right, it (of course) depends on the terrain the fight takes place. In a very similar sense, the Overwatch League grand finals will be decided. For almost the entire season, the regions have been separated, and we don’t know exactly which playground the teams will be matching on. Do teams have to dive into the deep blue sea or can they brawl it out with Winston/Sombra/Reaper comps for the majority of the maps? In an ecological time chamber, a lot of evolution can happen to define an Overwatch meta in four weeks, and while we’ve filtered for quick adaptations for most of the season, it is now on teams to specialise, or more nefariously, plot curveball strategies that the other teams won’t expect.
Given that there are four teams, naturally the probability of each team winning if they were all equally strong would be 25% for each respective team. Given the uncertainty factors outlined above, I don’t believe any team to drop below the 20% mark heading into the playoffs. This doesn’t necessarily imply close matches but rather that teams like the Dynasty definitely have considerable blowout potential given the circumstances of the final.
Therefore the team I am predicting to win can only be considered slightly ahead. Throughout the season, both the Shock and the Dragons have showcased adaptable dominance through many metas, securing the most tournament titles. However, not only do I believe the Dragons to have been the best team across the year, but I also think that their “home advantage” of having established practice environments gives them a relevant advantage. Moreover, their comeback potential within a best of X series is unrivalled this season, bringing several matches back from the brink. This quality will prove incredibly valuable given the format, giving them ample chances to adapt throughout the grand finals week.
The player who I see most likely walking away with the Grand Finals MVP is Jae-won "LIP" Lee. The DPS role appears to be of special importance in the most likely meta composition. His adaptability throughout a series has the highest chance to shine and will remain visibly impactful.
The Overwatch League Grand Finals begin on Thursday, October 8.
Images via Blizzard Entertainment
