The Countdown Conundrum: Can Carpe Still Cut It?

There is no doubt that Lee "Carpe" Jae-hyeok will go down as one of the most pivotal figures in Overwatch history, but for such an illustrious career stands a vacant trophy case. Holding steadfast with the Philadelphia Fusion since 2018, Carpe has yet to feel the relief of champions and hoist a major title above his head. How has this happened, does history hold any modicum of context, and what are his best chances to finally cross the line in Overwatch 2?

There are often those who, in a different time or a different place, could have easily been the best. But, for whatever reason, this little fraction of time has given birth to dominant forces - and that air has plagued Carpe’s career for years. Since his debut playing alongside BK Stars staring down the barrel of the likes of Team EnVyUs and Lunatic-Hai or having to face the season one London Spitfire, a superteam to rival all superteams or the dynastic rise of the San Francisco Shock. Carpe has seen it all and he and the Fusion sadly been swept under the water. And this comes with its fair share of close calls. 

Carpe has a myriad of silver and bronze medals, enough to Scrooge McDuck sized swimming pool. However, it’s the peak of the mountain that has eluded him, the numerous stage titles, sure there is the World Cup but by far is that or should that be considered the pinnacle of competitive Overwatch. Be it because of the rise of a rigid metagame that catches the world by surprise or the rise of a titan that strides forward unabashed, Carpe has always been in the conversation. He is a great player, and he plays for an amazing organisation, he just has never won. 

Weirdly enough history smiles fondly on careers that mimic Carpe’s own tale. Take for instance League of Legends’ own Yiliang "Doublelift" Peng. In the early days of his career, Doublelift was touted as an extremely gifted player but simply did not have anything to show for it. After debuting in 2011, Doublelift would not win a major title until 2015. The secret lies in the continued appearances, the persistence, the continued close-calls. If Doublelift was found less, then he would have been replaced. There is no doubt there is personal growth involved and help from his team in general, and while their stories are not direct translations, Carpe’s own tale holds echoes of this as well. 

After passing the initial eye test in 2018, going through a number of coaching regimes, Carpe has persisted. Even as the game has changed, and more fresh talent has been injected, Carpe continues to find success. Being able to pass the gatekeepers time after time means something in the long run, and much like Doublelift, the more Carpe continues to prove himself in those painful offseasons where the Fusion return to the chalkboard, the more likely it is that he’ll eventually find his win.

2021 was a difficult year for the Fusion and by proxy that is going to replicate within the statistics of their players, no matter how good we believe them to be. This was easily shown in their struggles towards the end of the season as the metagame approached a more dive centric style of play. Philadelphia DPS line, while deep, simply did not look comfortable on flanking DPS heroes like Tracer and Sombra. While never standing out as a world-class Tracer, Carpe felt invisible which is supported statistically. Out of 24 ranked players across the season, Carpe finished 21st in final blows per ten minutes, 14th in eliminations per ten minutes, and 18th in hero damage done per ten minutes on Tracer. 

This also was echoed through Carpe’s 2020 performance as well. Of 22 players ranked across the season, Carpe was ranked 8th in final blows per ten minutes, 12th in eliminations per ten minutes, 17th in hero damage done per ten minutes, however, his conservation stands out as a shining positive and is something that is rarely talked about as one of Carpe’s incredibly redeeming qualities. During the 2020 season, Carpe was ranked 20th in deaths per ten minutes. This along with his low average ranking when it comes to hero damage done across the aboard points towards a more safe style of play, more generally, with moments of brilliance that stands out. 

Zooming out for a moment, one of Carpe’s signature heroes is his Cassidy and there is a reason for that. Past the narrative of his more clutch tendencies, during the 2020 Overwatch League season, these tendencies continued. Out of 13 players ranked on Cassidy, Carpe ranked 3rd in final blows per ten minutes, 4th in eliminations per ten minutes, 9th in hero damage done per ten minutes, and 4th in solo kills per ten minutes. However, he led the league with the fewest deaths per ten minutes as well.

Skip to the 2021 season and this not only repeats but is even better given the context that it stands in the face of a worse season. Out of 17 players ranked during the 2021 Overwatch League season, Carpe ranked 4th in final blows per ten minutes, 4th in elimination per ten minutes, and 4th in solo kills per ten minutes. And again, Carpe led the league in the fewest deaths per ten minutes while also ranking the lowest in hero damage done per ten minutes. His Cassidy has been a lynchpin for the Philadelphia Fusion for a number of seasons now. That said, the frosting here is how well his team plays alongside it.

Out of 328 team fights during the 2021 Overwatch League season, Carpe held a 20.4% first elimination rate. After that first kill, the Philadelphia Fusion would transition that into an 86.6% team fight win rate. 

For a number of years, since the days of Winston’s Lab, first kills have been a marker of success when it comes to DPS and that transition into team fight win rate is a marker of importance. Landing the first blow matters far less if there is no follow-up, and this alone showcases how much weight the Fusion invests into Carpe. 

Now do these statistics provide any insight into the 2022 season and how Carpe could perform? We would wager it does.

When it comes to Overwatch 2 there are prevailing theories that point toward the game becoming more FPS focused, which would already return Carpe to his wheelhouse. However, we would argue that considering his more subtle conservationist style, statistically speaking, perhaps Carpe has a toolset that would only further benefit from placing more emphasis on individual skill rather than team fighting. 

To get in our own way for a moment, by far does this mean that Carpe does not or has not had his fair share of highlights. What this reveals is that his default mode, if you will, is much safer than the narratives around him might say. Of course, there are those moments like on Watchpoint: Gibraltar against the Shanghai Dragons that Carpe finds a way to will the Fusion across the line, but it’s like a light switch. 

Once he gives himself the go-ahead to accept the risk, that’s when you see the clutch playmaker emerge—but that isn’t his base. If Carpe is always taking positive positions, finding high-value targets with his cooldowns, and is rarely getting caught off guard, and you couple that with his obvious mechanical skill—perhaps the 2022 season could see Carpe truly lead the Fusion through uncharted waters. 

However, will he helm the ship or become more of a rotational threat?

The Philadelphia Fusion this year has promoted two very promising young talents from their academy roster. Kim "ZEST" Hyun-woo brings a high-level flex DPS hero pool to the table, but more interestingly Yoon "MN3" Jae-hee brings added hitscan DPS coverage to the 2022 Fusion. Now, this could be simply to assist Carpe’s tightening pool, which is even difficult to gauge from how up and down the Fusion have been year by year, or perhaps the trio will be in full rotation. And while this seems counter-intuitive at first, maybe it isn’t inherently a bad thing entirely to see Carpe take a bit of a back seat.

Ideally, all three DPS stars cover the bases needed as we walk into Overwatch 2. It’s difficult to say for sure if they do, because of the lack of information, but if we use past metrics they should cover the vast majority. Things like Ashe and Tracer, Echo and Tracer, these all plagued Philadelphia last season, but this iteration should be able to ace these checks without a problem. The only issue, which may be jarring for fans of the Fusion, is that Carpe’s starting time may take a hit, but his overall success should see a massive uptick. The Fusion doesn’t need him to come in and clutch the series, they don’t need him to be the ace, they have rookies that can carry their own weight and then some, Carpe in turn can better find his place within the team which helps everyone involved. 

Without any doubts in our mind, Carpe can still cut it. And while Overwatch 2 is still such an unknown quantity, can you name too many other players that have been tested to the length that he has? Striking awe since before the Overwatch League first took a breath, Carpe has been in the public eye and has been a world-class performer. The fact of the matter is this; there are a decreasing number of talents who, for whatever reason, can compete with his resume and pedigree.

Our bets are placed on the persistent star that has seen all there is to see in Overwatch. Our bets are on the team that has the vision for the future. Our bets are on the quiet underdogs who, since the inaugural season, have been undervalued.

Carpe will continue, just like he always has.