Are The Shanghai Dragons A Lock For Number One Going Into Overwatch 2? (1)

It’s hard not to root for the defending champions in any competitive fields, the Overwatch League included. And after emerging as a dominant force all throughout last season, the Shanghai Dragons are understandably topping community expectations as we inch closer to the May 5th start to Overwatch League’s fifth season.

After nearly sweeping the entire upper bracket during last year’s playoffs are they the de-facto option for the best squad around? With a new battleground to master, a triumphant but not spotless record, and the league continuously levelling up, are the 2022 Shanghai Dragons an automatic lock for the best team going into Overwatch League?

Starting with admittedly some of the weakest criticism, we often wonder if the Dragons ride high on a slight tailwind of recency bias. It is inarguable that the 2021 Shanghai Dragons were the most consistent and prepared team going into the playoffs, however, their record that season was not without some odd, and frankly out of place losses. 

Week 1 of the May Melee saw the Shanghai Dragons swept in convincing fashion to the Chengdu Hunters. Early season jitters and nervousness are certainly not out of the question, especially in light of their run during that stage’s playoff, so perhaps we can excuse that from the record. However, this ever-so-slight inconsistency perks up again during the June Joust, specifically in Shanghai’s Week 6 loss to the Hangzhou Spark. Now in defence of the Dragons, the Spark did advance to the playoffs with a perfect record and only dropping two maps through their four sets. 

We’re about to get heretical for a moment for all those who pray at the church of the Dragons. Would the 2021 Shanghai Dragons have been as good as they were if a team like the Dallas Fuel wasn’t pigeonholed? That same question could be posed to teams like the Chengdu Hunters and the Atlanta Reign. Past that, would the Dragons have been as dominant playing from the west with more of an assumed difficulty when trying to find better practice? 

It’s no question that every team can find success in the circumstance, but if we can agree that some of these points are a bit of Column A and a bit of Column B then this pristine view of their run last year begins to fall away. Not to discredit their achievement but to showcase that there is far more going both in and out of season to just frolic in the cement and etch the Dragons' logo permanently in the number one spot. That reality becomes even more disconcerting when you look at how the offseason has progressed for some of the league’s top teams. 

First on this shortlist has to be the San Francisco Shock. While the two-time champions were thwarted in their dreams for three, the Shock took no prisoners during the offseason. Being able to retain someone like Matthew "super" DeLisi is never going to be a bad move, but on top of that, the Shock signed former O2 Blast stars Jung "Kilo" Jin-woo and Oh "FiNN" Se-jin. However, what dominates their narrative is their acquisition of who many experts are claiming to be not only an early Rookie of the Year nominee but award winner, Kim "Proper" Dong-hyun. Being talked alongside and even surpassing some of the best DPS we currently have, this rookie is slated to make a gigantic impact on the Overwatch League. However, they are not alone in landing some up-and-coming stars.

Take for example the Chengdu Hunters’ promotion of star DPS Li "Apr1ta" Yuanjinghao. Coming in as easily one of the hottest talents from Overwatch Contenders China within the last few years, Apr1ta solves many of the issues the 2021 Hunters were plagued with last season and is able to do so at a world-class level. His presence is going to see both immediate upgrades when looking at the skill set needed for Chengdu moving forward but also has the potential to make a name for himself as one of the best DPS players in the world. 

Sat next to them are teams like the Los Angeles Gladiators, the Dallas Fuel, and the Hangzhou Spark, the list goes on and on. Year-on-year, we constantly say the same thing; this upcoming season is likely going to be even more competitive than the last. That feeling only arises when teams make these difficult wholesale changes and truly level up. That directly serves to challenge the Dragons even further—especially as we walk into uncharted waters of a new title. 

While Overwatch 2’s uncertainty is something that can be leveraged against every single franchise, team, and player walking into the 2022 season, it’s that inherent dilemma that makes it difficult to paint anyone into an "assured" position next season. As of writing this, we know next to nothing about Overwatch 2 outside of the few reworks and small anecdotes that have been given from developers. Anyone claiming one way or the next when it comes to favourites right now is using an antiquated lens of evaluation. We may be playing a similar game, with heroes that look and feel like they once did, but it’s always been about the minutia, the nuance that professional players can leverage at the highest level. Effectively they play their own game, shaving percents here and there to try and gain position on their opponents.

It would be akin to showing up to a football match without knowing if the ball had been deflated, if the pitch was smaller or bigger, or if the keepers now only could use their elbows to deflect and guard the net. We can make assumptions, sure, but to definitively lock a team in at first with such little information does a disservice to the league as a whole.

When you look at the roster of the 2022 Shanghai Dragons, it’s difficult to try and approach it with an unbiased lens. The personnel is world-class, the staff has continuously made the correct moves and provided results, and past that, their offseason moves have smoothed any rough edges you could even attempt to pick apart. 

Circling back to our discussion around Overwatch 2’s new battleground, the idea and concept of "support" play is something many pundits point to as a possible facet of change, which makes the Dragons' offseason acquisition of former Washington Justice flex support, Yoon "BeBe" Hui-chang, that much more interesting. Shanghai has always had a very well-rounded bench since head coach Moon "Moon" Byung-chul was placed into power. This also manifests in their decision to keep Lee "WhoRU" Seung-jun as well. Neither should expect to see playtime—even though that inherently is skewed towards Overwatch 1—but that isn’t the point. Coach Moon and the Dragons are not looking for replacements, at least this is the feeling from the outside looking in, so much as role players that can fill in if the need arises within this new, uncertain space. 

The Dragons can be the odds-on favourite to find repeat success and not be locked into the number one seed—these two things are mutually exclusive. One claims certainty in the face of the unknown and the other admits its flaws inherently and gives edges with what we know now. If we're not in the business of marrying the meta, then we should be sure to propose to last year's best team because it is more convenient to ignore the possibility that a new squad could thrive in an environment we still have yet to unlock. 

No one here is claiming the Dragons are bad or can’t do great things this year. 

We’re saying; let’s not jump the gun for number one.