LEC Match Of The Week: Rogue Vs Fnatic For #1
Let’s be honest, the choice of the top LEC match of the week isn’t a hard one this time around. Fnatic and Rogue, the joint leaders of the league’s table, are inviting for an appetiser of the summer split playoffs and yet the match is far from inconsequential. While yes, both teams have clinched a spot in the playoffs, the all-important first seed is on the line. Top tier League of Legends will be played.
Looking ahead at the strength of schedule of those two teams, Fnatic needs the win quite a bit more, seeing how they are to play against both Misfits and MAD Lions in the last week of regular-season competition who are certainly still contenders for the title, while Rogue only has to play through three teams from the bottom of the rankings. As such, it is expected that Rogue will win the remainder of their regular-season matches, while Fnatic could give themselves room for a breather if they were to win another head to head against Rogue.
Fortunately for Fnatic, a lot is speaking for them in this matchup. Currently, on a five-game win streak, Fnatic is looking warmed up and ready, with a win against Rogue a mere five weeks ago. Furthermore, a sign of Rogue’s mortality isn’t too far in the past, having lost to G2 just a fortnight ago, while Fnatic is coincidentally coming off the high of beating their long-time rival just last weekend. Over the last couple of splits, the match of the blue and orange giants has gone back and forth, further adding to the intensity of this series.
Despite the patterns of trends, trials, and tribulations, the match feels less determined by recent form and more by the outcome of the individual lane matchups that will result from the draft phase. While not terribly similar in playstyle, in many ways Rogue’s and Fnatic’s power level distribution across the roles is comparable.
For that reason, a key focus for this match will take place in the bottom half of the map, with both team’s AD carries Elias "Upset" Lipp and Steven "Hans Sama" Liv having had incredible splits this far with both being regularly brought up as possible candidates for the split MVP title. That said, not too much else is similar about the way both players interpret their roles, which feeds directly into the stylistic choices both teams have developed for themselves. The typical Fnatic draft sees the team securing picks like Tristana and Kaisa for Upset while Rogue looks for picks like Varus, Draven, and even Ziggs. Only their shared preference for Kalista is similar, which given the champion’s strength in the current meta is nothing short of a big “duh” and denying each other the pick is a given at this point.
Click to enlargeIn terms of other bans, despite the usual meta suspects of the aforementioned Kalista, as well as Xin Zhao, Thresh and Gwen, Gabriël "Bwipo" Rau’s Viego is likely to require a denial either in the form of a ban or a first-round pick from Rogue. Bwipo’s Veigo is so far unbeaten during the Summer Split, and his ability to impact all stages of the game with the pick is too scary for any side to let go unchecked. Fnatic’s bans against Rogue appear to be more dynamic, having to consider less 'must-bans' determined by individual player proficiency, and they’re thus allowed to ban more towards enabling themselves rather than to shut down their opponent.
Analysing both team’s losses this split, the tentative commonality of all of Rogue’s defeats this season are plays around the first Dragon at around five minutes. Choking out Hans Sama’s incredible potential to outlane an opponent (after all he’s an average of almost 1000 Gold up by 15 minutes) has been instrumental in all three of Rogue’s losses this season which came at the hands of Fnatic and G2 twice respectively. While this appears to be a fairly tidy pattern, Fnatic’s losses are about as aggressively chaotic as their playstyle, perhaps best illustrated by their loss against Misfits in week 1 of the split, which saw them up by more than 3000 Gold at the 12-minute mark only for them to impressively throw the advantage later on. Conversely, being down by a similar amount like they were in their victory against G2 in week 3 doesn’t automatically spell doom for them.
Curiously, from Fnatic’s recent win streak and the quality of those victories, the advantage in the head to head, and the overall matchup, Fnatic appears to not be seen as the favourite in this match by the community. Perhaps that is the case because of the prevailing narrative of the giants in Fnatic and G2 having fallen from grace that had announced itself for the last couple of splits. Whether or not this trend will continue in some parts will be decided this weekend, in this arguably most important match of the regular season.
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