Shock Against The World - How Can The League Thwart The Three-Peat?
It goes without saying that the San Francisco Shock are the team to beat. As ruthless as the 2021 offseason has been for the Overwatch League, the reigning Overwatch League champions still look in pole position to defend their title for a second time. In a way, if a franchise is in the market for a title, then the game is slowly becoming more about crafting a team to beat the Shock than it is about regular-season success. And that is not hyperbolic; no team has ever been able to do what they’ve done, let alone in the era they did it.
There is a reason the 2019-2020 Shock are the best team that will likely ever grace this game. This is the team that made the 2019 losers run look simple, the team that defended their title against the Seoul Dynasty through COVID and the loss of two stars. With that in mind, is there an ideal world the league could exist within that could ultimately hinder and limit the San Francisco Shock from winning their third consecutive championship?
If the league was some Machiavellian script then allowing them the luxury to sign someone as talented as Charlie "nero" Zwarg is not a piece that should have been left to them. And if that has you bewildered, then knowing that they recently acquired Lim "Glister" Gil-seong will leave you heartbroken.
As one of the more consistent weapons for the Guangzhou Charge, nero shores up one of the slight weaknesses we explored last season regarding flex DPS. Adding equal redundancy at the role while still providing slightly different proficiencies is Glister, the golden child from the London Spitfire.
One difficulty that the 2020 Shock iteration could have faced, especially after the departure of Jay "sinatraa" Won and Park "Architect" Minho, was a metagame that asked them to play two flex picks. Adding both nero and Glister to the lineup not only fills the shoes Kim "Rascal" Dong-jun had, but it also compliments someone like Sean "ta1yo" Henderson who has also shown to have a surprisingly large hero pool, and it adds a whole new dynamic to the team and returns them to their 2019 strength—if not past that. Again, leaving players of this calibre on the table for the Shock to utilise is a dangerous game. In a perfect world for the league as a whole, San Francisco’s peers would be improving their rosters, while the Shock would have to invest more time into scouting or making hardball trades.
In that same sense, it’s difficult to improve past world-class, but when your environment doesn’t force change upon you, why not stick with the world’s best Overwatch roster? What this means is that, while the Shock has suffered some heavy departures, the ideal universe sees them nearly gutted, with pivotal pieces directly feeding competitors. One core piece is missing from their last two titles, a player that opens up a handful of questions to be asked of the 2021 San Francisco Shock.
In a general sense, how hard will the three-peat be without Grant "moth" Espe? This is someone who massively impressed during the inaugural season and someone who played a massive role in both their 2019 and 2020 championship title victories. Now, any disrespect to French main support phenom, Brice "FDGod" Monsçavoir, is unintended. FDGod is a monster of a player in his own right, and we all witnessed that with the 2020 Paris Eternal. However, moth was always said to be almost an in-game arm of the coaching staff, someone who was talked about to have a unique sense of leadership—is FDGod that type of player? If not, can the Shock adapt to the absence of that and create an even better dynamic? This opens up a massive question that could hang like an albatross from San Francisco’s neck.
From a gameplay perspective, the best-case scenario for the league to avoid the Shock’s three-peat would be to continue the hero pool format in some variation to mitigate how much the Shock can refine any given metagame. Perhaps an argument can be made to also include hero pools in the playoffs. If the playoffs and grand finals are a measurement of the regular season, then it is only fair to test them on the material that was given to them. Looking at the past, in the moments where the Shock did seem fallible, that weeks given hero pool did play a factor either directly or indirectly.
During the Summer Showdown, one big factor in San Francisco tripping up was due to the absence of an explosive Genji needed to topple, or at the very least match, the eventual champions; the Paris Eternal. The Shock looked more reserved than we were used to seeing, and they were forced onto more creative compositions to compensate.
There were also instances where the hero pool format caused problems for the Shock. While few and far between, you can’t ignore their initial struggles against the Gladiators and the Valiant in Week 8, as well as the Fuel in Week 11. When we look at the throughline, you have to concede that as time progressed, these losses became more and more sporadic. When it comes to that, how can you not applaud head coach Park "Crusty" Dae-hee and the 2020 coaching staff?
With that said, a good portion of the staff that assisted Crusty in refining down the hero pool model have departed the Shock. How difficult will it be for the new staff to be able to do the same, alongside the other curveballs surely thrown their way?
However, more importantly, the final playoff metagame would need to land on something that doesn’t include much hitscan presence. Limiting players like Lee "ANS" Seonchang and Kwon "Striker" Nam-joo from comfort heroes is paramount. You simply cannot afford to have two transcendental talents running around at the same time with no distractions or mitigations.
Outside of gameplay considerations, there needs to be another home for talent-driven to win. The fact of the matter is that if you’re a player and your primary goal is to become the best—you aim to buy beachfront property in San Francisco. This culture of greatness has to be challenged if the league doesn’t want to begin to snowball out of control. Someone like the Seoul Dynasty or the Philadelphia Fusion has to edge them out this year, or this notion that the Shock is the best place for some of the top players to achieve their goals is only going to compound in on itself.
Click to enlargeIn reality, look at how far you have to reach to attempt to build a moral world where the 2021 San Francisco Shock don’t just look obviously favoured to capture their third title. This type of argument always comes down to “possibility” versus “likelihood”. Is it possible for the Shock to lose? Yes, of course—but is it likely? Not in the slightest, at least from our current vantage point.
Last year we spoke of a “swiss cheese” approach to stopping them, but we’re past the point of layers. Not only have they retained their world-class roster, but they’ve also managed to add to that roster this offseason. Teams are going to have to not only approach game days with intentions aimed at toppling the monarchs, but they also have to begin in the roster-building process if they want to stand a chance—and to be fair, some have.
However, this just stands as a testament to how special this team is. You need the world’s longest, most plush, yoga mat to be able to twist and contort your way into believing the San Francisco Shock are somehow comfortably continuing to build a dynasty.
Images via Blizzard Entertainment